Reliability Margins in Composite Pressure Tanks: Lifecycle Assessment of Uncertainty Quantification Methods

Abstract

The increasing demand for lightweight, high-strength containment systems in sectors such as aerospace, automotive, and renewable energy has positioned composite pressure tanks as a critical enabling technology. In particular, the transition toward a hydrogen-based economy relies heavily on the safe and efficient storage of pressurized gases. However, assessing the long-term structural integrity of these vessels presents significant challenges due to the inherent variability in composite manufacturing processes, operational fatigue, and environmental degradation. Traditional deterministic design approaches rely on conservative safety factors, often leading to over-engineered and economically unviable products. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation into the integration of lifecycle assessment evidence with advanced uncertainty quantification methods to accurately evaluate and optimize reliability margins in composite pressure tanks. By shifting from deterministic to probabilistic frameworks, engineers can capture the stochastic nature of material properties and dynamic loading conditions over the entire operational lifespan of the vessel. Through rigorous analysis of manufacturing variances, operational stressors, and end-of-life degradation pathways, this study demonstrates that uncertainty quantification provides a mathematically robust mechanism for redefining safety margins. The findings indicate that incorporating lifecycle data into probabilistic models significantly enhances the predictive accuracy of burst pressure and fatigue life estimates. Ultimately, this research supports the development of dynamic, reliability-based design codes that balance structural safety with material efficiency, thereby facilitating the broader commercialization of composite pressure tanks in high-consequence applications.